Current Threats - Institute of Terrorism Research and Response

Aaron Richman has posted the following Specific Maritime Threats

Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center (TAM-C) researchers have identified continued planning for the disruption of international maritime traffic. The communication is labeled, "Urgent for the jihadists of Somalia and Yemen: A proposal to close Bab Al-Mandab." Bab Al-Mandab is the narrow body of water between between Yemen and Somalia.

The jihadist communication says that the placement of improvised naval mines will cost Western states millions of dollars in direct costs to find and remove (at a cost of only thousands of dollars to place). Indirect losses, the jihadist says, may exceed a "billion dollars" (as a result of diversion of oil tankers and disruption of the main shipping lines in the Red Sea).

To increase effectiveness of this anti-shipping operation, jihadists are encouraged to spread the improvised sea mines across a broad area. TAM-C analysts note the potential spreading of dummy mines, in addition to the operational mines.

Jihadists employing this tactic are encouraged to "put out a cautionary statement for all the Islamic civil ships" in advance of such an operation.

******ACTION******

According to TAM-C analysis, the intent of the aforementioned maritime terror operation is a continuation of the asymmetrical war which Al-Qaeda has called "the war of the flea and the dog." The goal of this operation is:

1) Propaganda value, more than the sinking of ships.
2) Cause a direct affect on shipping through the Suez Canal.
3) Disrupt supply lines to the Western forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
4) Blockade Israel.

TAM-C analysts note that the targets of the anti-ship mines are not exclusively freight or military ships - entertainment or cruise ships are equally targets of the global jihad.

The improvised mine tactic, while discussed for use in Bab Al-Mandab, has previously been employed elsewhere. Internal jihadist communications previously identified by the TAM-C recommended the use of "barrel bombs" (1 February 2010). Such floating anti-ship mines, or barrel bombs, were later employed in the Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Israel.

TAM-C is monitoring jihadist communications for identifiable alerts to "Islamic civil ships"